本文是第一口勘探進行數(shù)值計算德布魯（1951）系數(shù)，并會在自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定（FTA）生效措施德布魯距離指示。與此同時，在亞洲的自貿(mào)區(qū)談判，以評估亞洲在多大程度上是代孕這使得它在過去十年發(fā)展非�？祜@得尤為重要。本文采用與交易成本十五國的全球一般均衡模型，數(shù)值計算的現(xiàn)狀和潛力亞洲貿(mào)易集團之間德布魯?shù)木嚯x，以評估這些亞洲自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定的影響。我們的計算結(jié)果表明，所有亞洲相關(guān)國家將來自亞洲貿(mào)易集團的安排，除非獲得這些自由貿(mào)易協(xié)定只能取消關(guān)稅。這些國家的收益將會增加非關(guān)稅減讓深處。較大的國家將獲得更多的比小國。亞洲自由貿(mào)易區(qū)，亞洲聯(lián)盟和RCEP將有利于各成員國比東盟+3以上。全球自由貿(mào)易將獲得所有國家之最。

    演講人簡介：李春頂，經(jīng)濟學(xué)博士，中國社會科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟與政治研究所副研究員、國際貿(mào)易研究室副主任。迄今為止，已在《The World Economy》《Economic Modelling》《China Economic Review》《世界經(jīng)濟》《財貿(mào)經(jīng)濟》《數(shù)量經(jīng)濟技術(shù)經(jīng)濟研究》等國內(nèi)外期刊發(fā)表學(xué)術(shù)論文60余篇；在《人民日報》《環(huán)球時報》《中國證券報》《上海證券報》《證券時報》等發(fā)表財經(jīng)評論60余篇。 

原文：This paper is the first exploration to numerically calculate the Debreu (1951) coefficient, and to introduce Debreu distance indicator in free trade agreement (FTA) effect measures. In the meanwhile, FTA negotiations in Asia developed very fast in the past decade which made it important to evaluate how far Asia is already surrogatetrade bloc. This paper uses a fifteen-country global general equilibrium model with trade cost to numerically calculate Debreu distance between present situation and potential Asia trade blocs, so as to evaluate these Asia FTA effects. Our calculation results reveal that all Asia involved countries will gain from Asia trade bloc arrangements unless these FTAs can only eliminate tariffs. These countries' gain will increase as non-tariff elimination deeps. Larger countries will gain more than small countries. Asia FTA, Asia Union and RCEP will benefit member countries more than ASEAN+3. Global free trade will gain all countries the most.