中國社會科學院陳小亮作了一場題為“The Tail that Wags the Economy Belief Driven Business Cycles and Persistent Stagnation(經(jīng)濟信仰驅動的業(yè)務周期和持續(xù)停滯的尾巴)”的講座。中國社會科學院擁有文學哲學部、社會政法學部、歷史學部、經(jīng)濟學部、國際研究學部、馬克思主義研究學部等6大學部，近40個研究院所，10個職能部門，包括中國社會科學院研究生院在內的8個直屬機構。講座的主要內容是：

　　“大蕭條”是一個嚴重衰退與信貸市場，勞動力市場和輸出效果持久。我們探討一個簡單的解釋是：此次衰退已經(jīng)比其他人更持久的，因為它是2007年觀測這樣一個小插曲導致所有代理重新評估宏觀風險，特別是尾部事件的概率之前被視為一種非常罕見的事件。為了模擬這種想法，我們研究了生產(chǎn)經(jīng)濟中債務融資的公司。代理使用標準的計量工具來估計骨料沖擊的分布。我們進料時間序列美國宏觀數(shù)據(jù)到我們的模型，并表明，我們的信念修正機制可以解釋在美國趨勢輸出的12%的向下移位。

　　原文：The “Great Recession” was a deep downturn with long-lasting effects on credit markets, labor markets and output. We explore a simple explanation: This recession has been more persistent than others because it was perceived as an extremely unlikely event before 2007. Observing such an episode led all agents to re-assess macro risk, in particular, the probability of tail events. To model this idea, we study a production economy with debt-financed firms. Agents use standard econometric tools to estimate the distribution of aggregate shocks. We feed a time-series of US macro data into our model and show that our belief revision mechanism can explain the 12% downward shift in US trend output.