中國人民大學王非現(xiàn)在中國人民大學新聞學院廣告學專業(yè)執(zhí)教。赴日本電通株式會社研修。在中國人民大學新聞學院攻讀傳媒經(jīng)濟學博士學位。主要研究領(lǐng)域為企業(yè)整合營銷傳播、廣告創(chuàng)意與表現(xiàn)、媒介經(jīng)營、數(shù)字媒體及媒介融合等。

　　中國人民大學王非中國的計劃生育政策對生育率使用來自中國健康和營養(yǎng)樣品動態(tài)，中國人民大學王非運用多種混合比例風險模型，其中未觀察到的個體異質(zhì)性是非參數(shù)估計，中國的最嚴厲和持續(xù)的計劃生育政策，降低的概率究竟有2和3胞胎的31.1%和35.3%，無子女和對correspond-多地上調(diào)概率和具有完全相同的模型模擬預(yù)測1出生54.9%和67.0%。前一胎化政策的政策已經(jīng)顯示相似，但較小的Ë學分。但是，模擬進一步表明，有沒有一直沒有計劃生育政策，生育率仍然會大幅度下降了。最后，受過良好教育的女性是不太可能有大量出生;婦女，其第一個誕生是一個兒子往往有更小的家庭比那些首先孩子是個女兒，以下為原文。

　　This paper estimates dynamic e ects of China's family planning policies on fertil- ity using an individual-level panel sample from the China Health and Nutrition Sur- vey. This paper applies a multiple-spell mixed-proportional hazard model where the unobserved individual heterogeneity is non-parametrically estimated, as suggested by Heckman and Singer (1984). Simulations from the model estimates nd that the one-child policy, the harshest and ongoing family planning policy of China, reduced probabilities of having exactly 2 and 3 births by 31.1% and 35.3%, and correspond- ingly raised probabilities of childlessness and having exactly 1 birth by 54.9% and 67.0%. Policies prior to the one-child policy have shown similar but smaller e ects. However, simulations further show that, had there been no family planning policies, fertility levels would still have declined greatly over cohorts. Lastly, better-educated women are less likely to have a large number of births; women whose rst birth is a son tend to have smaller families than those whose rst child is a daughter.